// FOSSIL ENERGY

Fossil Energy

Coal, oil and gas: mining and washing, upstream exploration and production, refining and oilfield services companies and research.

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// RESEARCH

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  • Oil & Gas2026-10-10

    City Gas Purchase and Sales Contract Price Reform: A Lower Share of Regulated Gas, Revaluing Residential Gas Costs and the Cost Pass-Through Standoff

    This report focuses on the evolution of the pricing mechanism in purchase and sales contracts in the city gas industry, analysing in particular how the adjustment of PetroChina's annual pipeline-gas policy affects downstream city-gas companies' procurement costs, cost pass-through capability and profit distribution. Based on public sources such as S6, S7 and S10, the report reviews the core changes in the pricing schemes from the 2024-2025 to the 2026-2027 contract years, including the lower share of regulated gas and the merger of residential and non-residential gas, and discusses the resulting contradiction between rising cost rigidity for city-gas companies and lagging end-price adjustments. The research finds that on the demand side city-gas companies face the dual pressure of residential gas price controls and slowing growth in industrial gas use, while on the supply side they are constrained by upstream gas-source concentration and locked-in contract terms; their cash flow and profit quality depend heavily on the pace at which local governments implement cost pass-through policies, and risk is being redistributed among government, city-gas companies and end-users. The report concludes that the city gas industry is moving from a high-margin, connection-fee-driven stage to a stage of refined management of existing gas volumes, with value distribution tilting toward companies with diversified gas sources and gas storage and peak-shaving capability.

  • Coal2026-10-03

    Coal Deep Dive: Revaluing the Regional Scarcity of Coking Coal: Washed Coal Strategy and Non-Power Demand Under Routine Safety Inspections

    Entering 2026, the coal industry has formally entered the pre-peak consumption window, with a supply-demand structure showing the complex features of "ample total volume, structural shortage". This report focuses on the coking coal sub-segment and analyses in depth the logic of releasing high-quality coking coal capacity and the attribution of profit under high-pressure safety-supervision policies such as the Seventeen New Rules on Coordinating Coal Industry Development and Safety in Shanxi. The research finds that, although the coal-price centre has shifted down overall, companies represented by Pingmei and Shanxi Coking Coal have effectively hedged the shock of market price volatility by raising raw coal washing rates through a "washed coal strategy". At the same time, penetrating accountability under safety policy for "concealed working faces" and "double-book mine plans" has in effect cleared some non-compliant capacity and strengthened the regional bargaining power of licensed large mines. However, there is a deep contest between weak demand from the downstream steel industry and the scarcity of coking coal, and the profit pool is concentrating among leading companies with "coal-power integration" or "coal-chemical integration" risk-resistance capability. With the China-US economic and trade consultations reaching a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework, the potential future entry of US metallurgical coal will become a key variable affecting domestic market redundancy and the boundaries of supply security.

  • Oil & Gas2026-09-29

    Oil & Gas Value Chain Deep Dive: Profit Shifts from Capex by China's Three Major Oil Companies to Technology Services for Boosting Unconventional Production

    Oil & Gas Value Chain Deep Dive: Profit Shifts from Capex by China's Three Major Oil Companies to Technology Services for Boosting Unconventional Production reviews the oil & gas value chain, market structure, key companies, policy drivers, investment themes and major risks. An English summary is not yet available for this report; see the Chinese edition.

  • Coal2026-09-22

    Coal Value Chain Deep Dive: RMB 1,000 Coal Prices Versus RMB 729 Long-Term Contract Prices and the Redistribution of Profits and Cash Flow Under Safety Inspection Constraints

    After the gas explosion at Liushenyu in Shanxi in May 2026, the escalation of safety supervision revised domestic effective capacity down in one step: raw coal output from industrial enterprises above designated size fell 7.7% year on year in August and 3.3% in January-August, imports also turned to a year-on-year decline in August, and northern ports and power plants entered rapid destocking. On September 17, the spot price of 5,500 kcal coal at Qinhuangdao Port broke through RMB 1,000/tonne, about RMB 270 above the August long-term contract index of RMB 729/tonne. This report breaks down price transmission segment by segment along upstream capacity and imports, midstream transport, inventory and dual-track pricing, and downstream coal power, coal chemicals, and steel and building materials: long-term contracts and capacity tariffs have preserved part of coal power's profit, coal chemicals have become one of the few cost pass-through links thanks to oil-price anchoring, while coking, steel and cement lack pricing power at both ends and continue to lose money. The conclusion is that this price rise is not a chain-wide boom but a concentration of profit toward the resource end and integrated companies, and that the allocation of book profit and of cash flow do not coincide.

  • Oil & Gas2026-08-08

    Oil & Gas Deep Dive: Temporary Refined Product Controls, Low Refinery Runs and the Redistribution of Refining and Marketing Margins

    The 2026 Hormuz crisis subjected China's oil and gas midstream to a rare stress test: Q2 crude imports fell to 8.1 million b/d, June imports were 29.27 Mt, down 41.3% year on year, and June crude throughput fell 17.7% year on year. On March 23 and April 7, the refined product pricing mechanism's temporary controls were invoked for the first time in 13 years, with gasoline raised by a cumulative RMB 1,425/tonne less than the mechanism implied; at the same time, gasoline and diesel exports were strictly controlled from March and only fully released in July. This report breaks down the pricing mechanism, imports and inventories, refinery runs, export controls, demand substitution and company earnings, and concludes that the cost of the temporary controls was borne first by the refining and marketing link in the form of compressed spreads, while inventories and export controls absorbed the import gap; profit concentrated in entities with inventories, export licenses and petrochemical conversion capacity, with independent refiners and the domestic retail link giving up the most. The spike and retreat in oil prices since late July has increased the volatility of refining-marketing spreads in H2.

  • Oil & Gas2026-07-31

    China Oil & Gas Industry H1 2026 Deep Dive: Rising Reserves Versus Import Dependence

    In H1 2026, China's oil and gas industry displayed the dual characteristics of "rising domestic output, still-high external dependence and an adjusting import mix": crude oil and natural gas output continued to grow, but crude oil import dependence remained high, while natural gas consumption and imports slowed in tandem. Across five dimensions (domestic output, import structure, consumption divergence, storage and transport infrastructure, and new energy substitution), the report analyzes the industry's path from ensuring supply and stabilizing prices toward security, controllability and cost optimization.

  • Coal2026-07-31

    China Coal Industry H1 2026 Deep Dive: Supply Shock, Coal-Fired Power's Share of Electricity Generation Falls Below 50%, and Imports Fill the Gap

    In H1 2026, China's coal industry simultaneously experienced a supply shock, a change in the coal-power structure and an import backfill: raw coal output from industrial enterprises above designated size declined year on year, coal-fired power's share of electricity generation fell below 50% for the first time, and imported coal took on a marginal balancing role after domestic supply tightened. Centred on supply, demand, imports, coal chemicals and the divergence between thermal power capacity and generation, the report analyzes structural change in the industry, divergence among companies, risks and subsequent scenarios.

  • Oil & Gas2026-06-28

    Oil & Gas Deep Dive: Integrated Refining and Petrochemicals Shift from Scale Expansion to High-End Materials Profit Pools

    The investment logic of the refining and petrochemicals industry is shifting from refining capacity expansion to product-mix upgrading. Slowing growth in refined-product demand, petrochemical cycle volatility and the release of overseas capacity mean companies must rely on high-end polyolefins, specialty materials, cost control and inventory management to earn profits. The refined-product pricing mechanism, energy-consumption constraints, safety supervision of chemical parks and policies on domestic substitution of new materials jointly determine the transformation path of refining and petrochemical companies. Policy leans toward supporting high-end, green and integrated operations. Refining and petrochemical companies cannot be judged on throughput alone; one should look at spreads, inventory gains, product mix, the share of high-end materials, the debt-to-asset ratio and capital expenditure discipline. A high-leverage expansion model warrants a stricter discount.

  • Oil & Gas2026-06-28

    Oil & Gas Deep Dive: Revaluing Natural Gas Peak-Shaving Assets and LNG Receiving Terminals

    The core of the natural gas industry is no longer just the gas price, but the gas source mix, pipeline transmission and distribution, storage and peak shaving, and LNG receiving capacity. As power load fluctuates and city gas demand recovers, assets with storage, transport and balancing capability are likely to gain clearer system value. Pipeline network independence, natural gas price marketization, gas storage capacity building and energy security policy jointly shape industry returns. The policy direction emphasizes safe and stable supply and also encourages more transparent price transmission between upstream and downstream. The upstream is judged on reserve replacement and unit costs, the midstream on pipeline and receiving terminal throughput, and the downstream on the cost pass-through mechanism and customer structure. The valuation of integrated gas source companies can shift from resource cyclicals to infrastructure cash flow.